Bargaining Chips:

What Will Stay and What Will Go in the 2020 NFL CBA Negotiations?

If there is one thing that is certain in NFL football, it is that the NFLPA is always worried about protecting their players any way they can. But what is also certain is that the NFL will always try to make as much money as possible. Now, is thwarting capitalism to protect players the best for the NFL? No. Is sacrificing player safety for higher profit numbers a good idea? Never. So that begs the question, what bargaining chips do each side really have?

Recently in an episode of our Weekend Sports Update, we discussed players like Jalen Ramsey, Le’veon Bell, and Jadeveon Clowney. All are players who wanted no part in being franchise tagged. The reasoning behind this is simple, there is no long-term security in the Franchise Tag, and it prevents players from being able to hit the open market and really capitalize on their TRUE market value. Le’veon Bell is the perfect example. Le’veon Bell was heading into last season as one of the most valuable running backs in the league. Running like a true RB1 and catching like a WR2. He was and arguably still is a COMPLETE running back. But the Pittsburgh Steelers, well within their rights, franchise-tagged Bell for a second time in 2018. Now, Bell was set to make plenty of money with the Steelers but had he hit the open market that year, he could have potentially broken the bank as a running back. However, all that ended up happening is Bell did not play a single down and ended up killing his own market value by not playing. Bell is just one of many examples of players who are not happy with how the Franchise Tag is used. So, what does the NFL have to gripe about? After all, it seems like they have all the control. Right?

            Well, in all fairness, the NFL and the teams do have a substantial amount of power. But the give and take from the NFLPA and the NFL will always be a power grab. The NFL, however, is always interested in making sure they are profitable. Because if the league goes under, EVERYONE goes under. So, what could the NFL want? More games. More games = More TV time = More TV Revenue from deals with Networks = More fans in seats = more tickets sales = more jersey sales = More Concession Sales…. You get the point. The more games that are played, means a significant more amount of $ for owners, and players.

            We have laid out two obvious things that will be on the table for the two sides in 2020. One will be the Franchise Tag for the owners (they can use that to possibly get more games) and more games (for the players can use to get rid of the franchise tag). This begs the question, what things will likely be on the table for the 2020 CBA negotiations? But also, and more importantly, what will we see go away and what will we see change? (Not a comprehensive list, but rather key topics for both sides)

Things the NFL will want in the 2020 NFL CBA:

1. 18/17 Game Season:
   • Not going to happen.
     • As much as the NFL will want this to happen, I do not think it will. More games subject players to more risk, more injuries and more long-term issues with likely little or no extra pay for those games.
2. Maintaining Revenue Share:
   • Here to stay.
     • When looking at the Revenue Share, the past CBA decreased the players cut from 50% to 47.5%. Look to see the NFL work to maintain as much revenue as they can since they will not be receiving a longer season. I just do not see it in the cards. Yet.
3. Keep Franchise Tag:
   • Here to stay:
     • The NFL will look to keep some power over the players they draft. This may only stay if the players gain some ground on either revenue share, unilateral power of Goodell, or the substance abuse policy.
4. Rookie Wage Scale:
   • Here to stay.
     • Simply put, teams will want to be able to have some control over the amount of money and length of time in which they have players they draft. It is simple math. Teams will want to be able to pre-fit draft picks into future salary caps s they cannot overspend and find themselves not being able to afford their number 1 pick.
5. Keeping Spending Floor:
   • Not going to happen:
     • This one is interesting. The NFL would obviously like to have the spending floor as low as possible so that owners could do their best to make money if the team is sucking. Whereas the players want the owners and teams to have to spend that money because that means it is going to players.

Things the NFLPA will want in the 2020 NFL CBA:

1. Eliminating the Franchise Tag:
   • Not going to happen.
     • As much distaste the players seem to have for the franchise tag, look for it to stay. They may possibly get the second use of the franchise tag eliminated, but the fact of the matter is, the teams pay top-dollar for the Franchise Tag. Whether players want to stay with the team or not. Also, I believe the players will target bigger issues.
2. Unilateral Power of Commissioner (Roger Goodell):
   • Maybe altered?
     • This one is hard to figure. The players have long been unhappy with Roger Goodell’s ultimate decision-making power on discipline. Look for something similar to their “improved” domestic violence policy where there are panels deciding punishment.
3. Substance Abuse Policy:
   • Major Changes to Marijuana Policy:
     • I see the players union finally pushing for the destruction of Marijuana from the substance abuse policies. The fact is simple. It will make the League look mainstream and as a trendsetter. But, more importantly, it will allow players to self-medicate in a way that is much healthier than the opiates they are often reliant upon.
4. Revenue Share Increase:
   • Not going to happen.
     • Like we said before, if there is something we know the NFL cares about, it is their pockets. Look to see the NFL try to maintain a larger portion of revenue.
5. Increase Spending Floor:
   • Look to see Increase.
     • While the players will likely lose the revenue share increase, they may ultimately win a higher spending floor. They may not get more of the money, but they may get the owners to have to spend more of that money. In theory, this will mean more money to players and less salary cap space year to year as teams are required to spend that money each year.

Ultimately, there will likely not be TOO MUCH change, there never is. Each side will have to give ground for the sport to continue without a lockout. However, notice the three main trade-offs we are predicting. The NFL will keep the Franchise Tag, a higher revenue share and the Rookie Wage Scale. While the players see several non-monetary items altered. These include Goodell’s disciplinary power, substance abuse policy, and one monetary, the spending floor increase. While these are my predictions based on what I think will ultimately happen, I WOULD NOT be surprised to see a lock-out from the players if they feel they really need to take a stand on one of these issues. Whether it be Goodell’s power, Substance Abuse Policy, or the Franchise Tag. Only time will tell.